Decision IPCC/XLIV-4. Sixth Assessment Report (AR6)
Products, Outline of the Special
Report on 1.5°C
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change decides,
1. To agree to the outline of Global Warming of 1.5°C, an IPCC special report on the impacts of
global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas
emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of
climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty as contained in
Annex 1 to this document;
2. That this report responds to the invitation of the UNFCCC to the IPCC as contained in
paragraph 21 of its Decision 1/CP.21, the Conference of the Parties to the United Nations
Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), and should also be seen in the
context of paragraph 17 of the same decision;
3. That this report assesses literature relevant to 1.5°C, especially since the Fifth Assessment
Report (AR5), consistent with the IPCC guidance on the use of literature;
4. That the bulleted text in Annex 1 to this Decision, that resulted from the scoping process and
refined through comments by the Plenary, be considered by authors as indicative, taking into
account the scope of the literature assessment referred to in bullet 3 and scientific gaps that
will be explicitly identified;
5. That the time schedule for the production of the Special Report is as follows:
A call for nominations of Coordinating Lead Authors (CLAs), Lead Authors (LAs) and
Review Editors (REs) will be issued after the 44th Session of the IPCC in October 2016.
Approval and acceptance of the Special Report is planned for the 48th Session of the
IPCC in September 2018.
In order to achieve this, the timetable for the Special Report is as follows:
31 October - 11 December 2016 Call for author nominations
29 January 2017 Selection of authors
6-12 March 2017 1st Lead Author Meeting
5-11 June 2017 2nd Lead Author Meeting
31 July - 24 September 2017 First Order Draft Expert Review
23-29 October 2017 3rd Lead Author Meeting
1 January - 25 February 2018 Second Order Draft Expert and Government Review
9-15 April 2018 4th Lead Author Meeting
4 June - 29 July 2018 Final Government Review of Summary for
Policymakers (SPM)
24-30 September 2018 IPCC acceptance/adoption/approval
6. That the budget for the production of the Special Report is as contained in Decision
(IPCC/XLIV-1) on the IPCC Trust Fund Programme and Budget.
18
ANNEX 1
Proposed outline of the special report in 2018 on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C
above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the
context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable
development and efforts to eradicate poverty
Title:
Global warming of 1.5oC
An IPCC special report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and
related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global
response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty
List of Contents
Front Matter (2 pages)
Summary for Policy Makers (up to 10 pages, incl. headline statements, tables, figures)
Chapter 1: Framing and context (15 pages)
Chapter 2: Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable
development (40 pages)
Chapter 3: Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems (60 pages)
Chapter 4: Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate
change (50 pages)
Chapter 5: Sustainable development, poverty eradication and reducing inequalities (20
pages)
Boxes - integrated case studies/regional and cross-cutting themes (up to 20 pages)
FAQs (10 pages)
Total: up to 225
Front matter
IPCC context
o Building on AR5
o Assessing literature since AR5
o Reports to come in this cycle
Context of UNFCCC invitation
Specificity of this report within the cycle (integration, systems- and solutions-based
approach, near-term)
Laying the foundations for the Special Report in the context of strengthening the global
response to climate change, sustainable development and poverty eradication
Chapter 1:
Framing and Context
Understanding 1.5°C; reference levels, probability, transience, overshoot, stabilization
1.5°C in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change,
sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty, with consideration for ethics and
equity
Key concepts central to understanding the report
Building on AR5: new information, integrative approaches, response options
Assessment and methodologies across spatial and time scales
Treatment of uncertainty
Storyline of the report
19
Chapter 2:
Mitigation pathways compatible with 1.5°C in the context of sustainable development
Methods of assessment and assumptions in the literature
Constraints on, and uncertainties in, global greenhouse gas emissions consistent with
warming of 1.5°C compared to 2°C, considering short lived and other climate drivers and
taking into account uncertainty in climate sensitivity
Characteristics of mitigation and development pathways compatible with 1.5°C compared
with 2°C and, where warranted by the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming.
This may,include short and long term timeframes, sectorial, regional, demand/supply-side,
technological and socio-economic implications
Technological, environmental, institutional and socio-economic opportunities and challenges
related to 1.5°C pathways
Chapter 3:
Impacts of 1.5°C global warming on natural and human systems
Methods of assessment
Observed and attributable global and regional climate changes and impacts and the
adaptation experience
Key global and regional climate changes, vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking
into account adaptation potential and limits to adaptive capacity
Key sectoral vulnerabilities, impacts, and risks at 1.5°C, taking into account adaptation
potential, limits to adaptive capacity and socio-economic aspects
Avoided impacts and reduced risks at 1.5°C compared with 2°C and, where warranted by
the literature, comparison with higher levels of warming
Timeframe, slow vs. fast onset, irreversibility and tipping points
Implications for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability of different mitigation pathways
reaching 1.5°C, including potential overshoot
Chapter 4:
Strengthening and implementing the global response to the threat of climate change
Assessing current and emerging adaptation and mitigation options, including negative
emission methodologies, and associated opportunities and challenges
Synergies, trade-offs and integration of adaptation and mitigation options
The pace of the development and deployment of adaptation and mitigation options
compared to pathways consistent with sustainable development and 1.5°C
The potential and capacity limitations for development and deployment of adaptation and
mitigation responses to accelerate transitions within and across scales and systems (e.g.
food production, cities)
Options for implementing far-reaching and rapid change; implications, challenges (e.g. lock
in, spillover effects), enabling environments and across scales
Case studies for implementation of adaptation and mitigation options at different scales and
circumstances, and lessons learned
Chapter 5:
Sustainable development, poverty eradication, and reducing inequalities
Linkages between achieving SDGs and 1.5°C
Distributional impacts arising from response options
Opportunities, challenges, risks, and trade-offs
Positive and negative impacts of adaptation and mitigation measures including response
measures and strategies, economic diversification, livelihoods, food security, cities,
ecosystems, technologies
Knowledge and experience from local to global, including case studies and integrated
planning as relevant to aforementioned bullets
Climate-resilient development pathways
sábado, 3 de febrero de 2018
viernes, 23 de enero de 2009
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